Turkey and Friends

Image from abgs.gov.tr

The EU is a pretty emotive subject. On one hand, you have the Express types who apparently believe that the EU is one steam-powered robot spider from being the villain from Wild Wild West. On the other, there are people like me who think the Lisbon treaty didn't go far enough and would actually sort of like it if everyone was required to learn Esperanto (or even better, Latin).

Strip away that emotive layer, and what remains is basically a 5-10% increase in cross-border trade, and the ability to use that as a very big carrot to get our near-abroad to fall into line on things like life and liberty.

(Dear readers who are also historians: it's been sixty years since the Schuman declaration. When was the last sixty-year stretch when no members of the EU-15 were at war with each other? If the answer is what I think it is, it's either very hopeful or we're overdue.)

Turkey really, really wants to join the club.

Image from Wikimedia

Inside the clubhouse, the bulk of opinion is in favour, but the opposition includes some big-hitters. 

• Britain and Italy say Turkey should join, and think it'd be a major coup for security and massively increase the influence of Europe in the Middle East. 
• Spain is in favour, liking the "peace and co-operation" angle.
• Sarkozy of France is opposed on the grounds that Turkey is in Asia, not Europe
• Austria are opposed, apparently on the grounds that Turkey besieged Vienna in 1683 and they're not over it
• Sweden says that Sakozy had no problem with Cyprus and that it sounds like total bullshit to them.
• But mentioning Cyprus around Greece makes them angry, and maybe they have a point. Something definitely needs to happen there.

The good news on the Cyprus front is that the European project is setting up exactly the kind of structures that can handle problems like this. 

What even the people who don't want Turkey electing MEPs would agree, though, is that it's a good thing if Turkey keeps working towards it. Since they first knocked on the door, Turkey has made massive strides towards making their economy more competitive and transparent, and has ratcheted down a lot of the crazy. There is still a lot of crazy, but I know I'm not alone in hoping that it's on the same track as Spain, just back a few decades and with more shisha.

The other thing everyone would agree is that Turkey's got a road. Membership would be a big deal. This isn't like Malta or Slovenia, where you might overlook the last few quibbles and wave them in. There are 72 million people in Turkey; If it ever joins, it'll be comparable in power to Germany, France, Italy or the UK. It would radically change the way that Europe relates to the Muslim world, and probably the way we think about both of those concepts.

Depending on your viewpoint; that might be the best reason to do it or the best reason not to.