Turkey and the Asymmetric Objectives

I have mentioned before that I have been known to spend a pleasant afternoon in the local arts centre playing what are known as german-style games. For all-too obvious reasons, the themes popular in Britain and America are not considered good clean fun there, so German games tend more towards themes like infrastructure, agriculture and bean optimisation. Other common features of German games that I like are that all players tend to be in it to the end, the various players may be in competition or harmony at different times, and that there are multiple paths to victory. All of these, of course, are like elections.

Turkey has proportional representation (in the d'Hondt allocation, if you're interested; you only vote for one party, unlike STV, but it's still proportional). But then, Turkey's system might be better described as "kind-of" proportional. You see, to get any seats at all you have to get 10% of the vote nationally. To see why that might be a problem, consider the UK:

Region	Population, approx	Fraction of total
UK	62 million	100%
Northern Ireland	1.8 million	3%
Wales	3 million	5%
Scotland	5.2 million	8%

If you think a system where the SNP could get the vote of every single eligible Scot and still receive zero MPs isn't very proportional, then you know how Turkish Kurds feel.

There is a workaround, though: obviously an independent MP could never get 10% nationally, so they only have to get 10% in their region. (Obviously they still have to get enough votes to earn a place.)

So, the 2007 election results looked like this:

Image from Wikipedia

Blue for the conservative AKP, Red for the left-wing Republicans, Green for the Nationalists, and purple for the what-me-I-don't-know-anything-about-any-Kurdish-Democrats-party.

You may notice that the AK are pretty close to a two-thirds majority: that's important, because two-thirds is what you need to amend the constitution. The AKP have said that that's exactly what they want to do. The Republicans want to control 1/3rd of seats so they veto, and plenty of people feel that would be a good thing in general. Failing that, they at least want the AKP to have to negotiate with someone.

So, the objectives look something like this:

Party	Polling	Moderate Success	Release the victory balloons
AKP	45%-50%	50%+ of seats in assembly	2/3rds majority
Republicans	25%-30%	Stop the AKP getting 2/3rds	Get a full 1/3rd
Nationalists	10%-14%	Qualify for seats by beating 10% of vote	Overtake Republicans
Kurds	5%-10%	Hold steady	Keep out Nationalists

Now, this is where it gets interesting. The AKP can get a supermajority two ways: by driving up their vote share ten points, or by driving the Nationalist vote down to 9.9% or less. Which might be why Erodgan has started talking tough on Europe, being rude about Israel, and mentioning that Kemal Kilicdaroglu is an Alevi three or four times a week. This last stunt is generally considered about as classy as landing the emphasis on President Obama's middle name.

(The Alevi, by the by, are a Shia denomination, while the rest of Turkey is Sunni. I hadn't heard of the Alevi before, but the comparison seems to be Alevi~ Islam as Quaker ~ Christianity.)

Kilicdaroglu himself hasn't mentioned his own religion or lack of, as is appropriate for the leader of the most pro-secular party. However, there are intimations that the Republicans (who have historically given not one-half a damn what the Kurds think) are starting to pick up ground in the East. That could be partly because of Kilicdaroglu's minority heritage, or the fact that under his leadership the Republicans have backed off some of the One-Nation tubthumping they've done in the past.

So while the AKP are squeezing the Nationalists on the right, the Republicans seem to be trying to consolidate liberals and minorities on the left. They may not get on with the Nationalists, but they'd rather the MHP did get into parliament, because if they do it'll be very hard for the AKP to rule the roost.

I'm off to a job interview tomorrow, but hopefully I'll get another post up before election night on Sunday. Next week we're going into a bit of a dry spell, but we can talk about Thailand, Morocco, maybe São Tomé and Príncipe if I can get interested in it, and perhaps Italy and Latvia's ongoing squabbles if I'm still unemployed. Toodle pip.

Turkey and the Heart of Darkness

Earlier I showed you this map:

2007 election result from Wikipedia

For a quick refresher on who these people are:

AKP- the Justice and Development party: Prime Minister Erdogan's party, and the Muslim world's answer to Europe's "Chistian democrat" parties (which, for the record, are like our Conservatives except they spend more time worrying about social issues and less time worrying about welfare cheats).

CHP- the Republican Party. Originally super-hot on Secularism, but now wandering more towards mainstream Social Democracy (like Labour or the Socialists in Germany and France). Party of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the only person other than Erdogan who obviously has a chance of being PM in their life.

MHP- the Nationalist Action party. I'd say they're somewhere between UKIP and the BNP, but less cagey about their intentions.

The cyan on that map are "Independents": for now, just think of them as the Kurdish party.

Into the heart of darkness

I should say that the MHP represent a very real and very ugly stream in Turkish society. Like our nationalists, they have the sketchiest possible understanding of history and human decency. They also, like the EDL, like to demonstrate their patriotism by beating up people who look like they might be a minority.

The dark parts of Turkish culture really seem to have ramped up since the invasion of Iraq; general purpose anger (which is understandable) seems to have become mixed up with anti-West, anti-Israel, and anti-anyone-not-Turkish-enough sentiment. The most commercially successful outcome is Valley of the Wolves:

Image from Wikipedia

In many ways it's a standard good-guys vs. bad-guys action film, except that the bad guys are American soldiers, plus a Jew who steals organs from Muslims to sell on the apparently-bustling child-organ markets of New York and Tel Aviv. The Americans, meanwhile, are doing every bad thing they really did, every bad thing other people might have done, and overall stopping just short of goose-stepping and wearing swastikas.

Swastikas themselves are problematic, though: in what I take to be the equivalent of a teenager getting a tattoo of a skull, as the war progressed sales of Mein Kampf went through the roof, to a worldwide chorus of "wtf".

I'm not saying this is anything unique to Turkey. Our own million-selling papers aren't afraid of racist nationalism, or paranoid fantasy, or inciting violence against religious minorities. Just remember that those people are there, and they're important.

To be fair, the MHP aren't alone in having problems: the Republicans have links to certain very enthusiastic military people, the Kurdish parties are like Sinn Fein in that they know absolutely nothing about any bombs that may or may not have been detonated in town squares, and the demons of Islamist thought need no introduction. The difference, I would say, is that while everyone else tries to distance themselves from their own extremist wings, MHP celebrate theirs.

We'll go into the impact they're having on this election (which is both unexpected and possibly quite significant) in a post tomorrow. We'll also go into why Kurds run as Independents, and I can promise we'll also feature the words "d'Hondt allocation". Hold on to your hats.

Turkey and Friends

Image from abgs.gov.tr

The EU is a pretty emotive subject. On one hand, you have the Express types who apparently believe that the EU is one steam-powered robot spider from being the villain from Wild Wild West. On the other, there are people like me who think the Lisbon treaty didn't go far enough and would actually sort of like it if everyone was required to learn Esperanto (or even better, Latin).

Strip away that emotive layer, and what remains is basically a 5-10% increase in cross-border trade, and the ability to use that as a very big carrot to get our near-abroad to fall into line on things like life and liberty.

(Dear readers who are also historians: it's been sixty years since the Schuman declaration. When was the last sixty-year stretch when no members of the EU-15 were at war with each other? If the answer is what I think it is, it's either very hopeful or we're overdue.)

Turkey really, really wants to join the club.

Image from Wikimedia

Inside the clubhouse, the bulk of opinion is in favour, but the opposition includes some big-hitters. 

• Britain and Italy say Turkey should join, and think it'd be a major coup for security and massively increase the influence of Europe in the Middle East. 
• Spain is in favour, liking the "peace and co-operation" angle.
• Sarkozy of France is opposed on the grounds that Turkey is in Asia, not Europe
• Austria are opposed, apparently on the grounds that Turkey besieged Vienna in 1683 and they're not over it
• Sweden says that Sakozy had no problem with Cyprus and that it sounds like total bullshit to them.
• But mentioning Cyprus around Greece makes them angry, and maybe they have a point. Something definitely needs to happen there.

The good news on the Cyprus front is that the European project is setting up exactly the kind of structures that can handle problems like this. 

What even the people who don't want Turkey electing MEPs would agree, though, is that it's a good thing if Turkey keeps working towards it. Since they first knocked on the door, Turkey has made massive strides towards making their economy more competitive and transparent, and has ratcheted down a lot of the crazy. There is still a lot of crazy, but I know I'm not alone in hoping that it's on the same track as Spain, just back a few decades and with more shisha.

The other thing everyone would agree is that Turkey's got a road. Membership would be a big deal. This isn't like Malta or Slovenia, where you might overlook the last few quibbles and wave them in. There are 72 million people in Turkey; If it ever joins, it'll be comparable in power to Germany, France, Italy or the UK. It would radically change the way that Europe relates to the Muslim world, and probably the way we think about both of those concepts.

Depending on your viewpoint; that might be the best reason to do it or the best reason not to.

Turkey and the Contenders

Turkey fact: You can often tell a Turkish man's political leanings by his mustache style: Over the lip for left-wing, trimmed flat for conservatives.


Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been Prime Minister since 2003, and unless something goes incredibly wrong, he is going to be Prime Minister after the election too.

Image from Wikimedia

On the other hand, this is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the opposition Republican party:

Image from gadanalam.com

The very short version is that Erdogan is a moderate-conservative, basically the Muslim version of Christian-Democratic politicians like Angela Merkel in Germany or Sarkozy in France. Kilicdaroglu is more left-wing, liberal and secularist; he's particularly popular among urban, young and middle-class voters.

This post ended up getting long, so I've put in a jump: read on to find out what those guys would say their most important difference is.

Turkey- Overview

Turkey-fact to use at parties: The American bird is named after the country because similar birds (now called Guinea fowl) used to be bought into Europe via the Ottoman empire. In Turkey, they're called India, and in parts of India, they're called Peru.

Turkey-fact for massive bluffers: "After the constitutional referendum last year, I think Erdogan has it in the bag. Turkey has certainly come on in leaps and bounds under the AKP, but ironically I don't think their European aspirations will come to much until the opposition find their feet again".

(Image from Visit2Istanbul.com)

Turkey one hundred years ago can basically be summed up by doing a Google image search for "sultan". The Ottoman Empire somehow managed to last for centuries, despite having a system that often lead to the head of state being a) inbred and b) raised in solitary confinement. Everyone was firmly of the opinion that the empire was just about to collapse from about 1650 through to 1923, when it finally did. The new revolutionary republic decided to move away from the last few centuries of the Sultan eating sherbet, sitting on exquisite silk cushions, and watching himself having sex in a mirror while making horse noises. Instead, they looked at what Europe and America had done since their 1820, and reckoned they could do the same.

Turkey today is an interesting place. Almost everyone is at least nominally Muslim, but the constitution is extremely strongly secular. Turkey sees itself as an integral part of Europe, and the rest of Europe is divided on the issue. The country is changing extensively, rapidly and dramatically. Turkey might become a model of European-level prosperity and freedom for the Muslim world, or it might collapse in on itself.

Image from a site specialising in weird football wallpapers

In about a month, Turkey is having a general election. Over the next few posts, we'll take a look at the contenders and examine the odds. We'll find out where they're coming from and what they're for. We'll see who's watching anxiously and who's already pissed off about it. I don't want to give too much away, but there are also hints of military conspiracies and one of the weirdest publishing phenomena I've ever heard of.