Portugal: the contenders

I had some surprises the first time I looked at Portugal, and since then I've had some more. I have always thought of Portugal as a pretty conservative Catholic country, but it turns out that the current Socrates government have legalised abortion and affirmed the right of gay people to marry. I take from this that the Socialists are either very principled or get all their support from young people. Their other main priorities seem to have been doing some solid foreign-relations stuff on behalf of the EU, boosting the hi-tech sector and trying to get on top of the public-sector payroll (much like Greece, they seem to have had a lot of what is coyly referred to as "overcapacity").

The Socialist party, whose logo looks like it belongs on a newpspaper handed out on the street

Unfortunately that comparison with Greece's public sector was backed up with a comparison to Ireland's construction boom, and as a result the financial crisis screwed the budget and caused the sovereign debt bonds to rocket in price. Back in March, Jose Socrates went to the parliament with a pretty rough austerity budget and the following exchange took place (Translated):

Jose Socrates: "Guys, I know this budget is going to be unpopular, but we need to pass it or we're going to be forced to take an EU bailout to make the rent, and their money comes with a hell of a lot of strings attached. Plus, if it doesn't pass, I'm basically not going to be able to do my job."

Passos Coelho: "Sorry old fruit, but we reckon we'd have you on toast in a general election, so put up them dukes and get ready for a vote of No Confidence".


So step forward the PSD, main opposition and government in waiting, right?

The Social Democratic party, whose logo looks like a removal company from 1990

Well, maybe. Here's a smoothed chart of opinion polls:

Just before the election was called, there was a widespread perception that the Socialists had fallen asleep at the wheel and the PSD should be next to have a go. Since the actual campaign started, they seem to have been bleeding out.

One reason might be that the vote of No Confidence was seen as a bit mercenary; the PSD have a long history of preferring smaller government and voting for austere budgets. The political spectrum in Portugal is similar to ours here in the UK, but the divisions are different. Probably the best description of the PSD is that they are like our Coalition government: a big tent including Big Society conservatives and free-market Liberals. The difference is that while our Right-leaning Lib Dems said that they might not be getting everything they want, but the middle of a debt crisis was no time to monkey around with minority governments and early elections. The PSD, in the eyes of their critics, said that they might well be getting everything they want but there were political gains to be had, so the unsteady nerves of the market could go hang while they cashed in.

Another explanation is that steadily-rising Blue line. Attentive readers might be thinking that if the PSD are the Coalition, then there's room on the right flank: people who refer to themselves as Tories, the Carlton Club and Cornerstone Group. In Portugal, that's the People's Party.

The People's Party, whose logo looks like a symbolic instruction on a health and safety panel of a box of industrial cleaning powder.

The PP's traditional stomping ground is rolling back the abortion-and-gay-marriage achievements of the Socialists, but they're also the most anti-Europe party available. That's probably helping them at a time when Frankfurt is telling Portugal it needs to either cut down on pensions and libraries or else raise taxes.

Since Portugal has proportional representation, Parliament will probably end up looking a lot like the polls. If it stays as it is, the question will be: who is better placed to pull together a coalition or govern as a minority?

Passos Coelho - Image from the Lagos branch of the PSD

Pedro Passos Coelho is probably the favourite to be Prime Minister; if he can win back some of the support that's slipped away since March, or get the People's Party onside, he'll be there.

Jose Socrates- image by Francisco Leong/ AFP

On the other hand, don't count out the Prime Minister; he seems to have gotten some balance-the-budget cred for trying to do the hard but right thing when it came to it, but hasn't completely lost the protect-public-services ethos of a left-wing party. He's led a minority government before, and has a lot of credibility for his achievements, economic meltdown notwithstanding.

It look to me like it'll be a nailbiter.