Portugal Results

Image from Internal Ministry results page

Well, much as expected: the centre-right PSD (remember, think of them as the moderate half of the Conservatives and the free-market half of the Lib Dems) has come out first. The Socialists have sagged a bit more than expected, so I really doubt that anyone but Coelho will make it to the PM's chair.

The PSD are probably close enough to run as a minority government. Alternatively, they might bring in the Popular Party as a coalition partner.

Edit: Just to clarify, these are provisional results with abut half the precincts reporting: the percentages will probably shift a bit overnight.

Election Day Guide, Portugal, Peru, Macedonia

Most countries of the world like to vote on a holiday. Some have a national holiday,which seems nice. Most do it on a Sunday. In Britain, of course, our elections are almost always on a Thursday, which might be why we have such bad turn-out rates (around 60%). If anyone can find me an authoritative source for why Thursday, I'd be very interested: I've heard theories that it's because Thursday used to be a customary half-day, or because Friday is payday and it's assumed that Thursday is thus the day that general public are least likely to turn up to the polls drunk.

I will admit that I will be spending my Sunday afternoon with a few beers over a game of Ra in the local arts centre, but I'll also be trying to keep an eye on the election results as they come in.

Logo of the official results

Portugal will probably be easiest; they're on the same time zone as Cardiff, will be putting out provisional results mid-day and will do it all online. Perfect.

Like in a lot of places, polling and campaigning on election day is forbidden (not entirely a bad idea), but the latest numbers seem to have coagulated around a eerily familiar result: The governing centre-left party will probably run in second at around 30%, so the main centre-right opposition will probably form the next government but will have to go into coalition to do it. In the long run this might be good news for the Left, as it means they don't have to be the ones to wield the axe on public spending.

Logo of the election observers

Macedonia may be a little more tricky: They're an hour ahead, but allow Macedonians living overseas to vote, which obviously will take some time counting. On the other hand, it seems very likely that the ruling centre-right will have established an unassailable lead before bedtime.

They are putting out press releases, but they only seem to cover turnout and I don't really understand them, so I guess I'll just keep an eye on the news sources.

Image from flags.net

Peru is a solid five hours behind, and the result is looking unpredictable at this point. Fujimori has a slight lead in the last polls before the end of campaigning, but within the margin of error (not least because 14% say they just can't bear to sign up to either extremist clown. Incidentally, this election is shaping up into a great example of why AV is better than SV.

Fujimori has the edge in the capital and coast, while Humala leads out in the country and mountains; I expect to see a Fujimori lead in the early results, a Humala fightback, and probably going to a recount.

There is an official results page, but I'm having a hell of a time navigating it (not least because so much of their text is actually in jpeg format, therefore making it impervious to automatic translation. Therefore, I'm going to be checking peru.com- though honestly I doubt there'll be much worth reading before breakfast.

Those willing to wait, of course, will see updates posted here and on twitter.

Portugal: the contenders

I had some surprises the first time I looked at Portugal, and since then I've had some more. I have always thought of Portugal as a pretty conservative Catholic country, but it turns out that the current Socrates government have legalised abortion and affirmed the right of gay people to marry. I take from this that the Socialists are either very principled or get all their support from young people. Their other main priorities seem to have been doing some solid foreign-relations stuff on behalf of the EU, boosting the hi-tech sector and trying to get on top of the public-sector payroll (much like Greece, they seem to have had a lot of what is coyly referred to as "overcapacity").

The Socialist party, whose logo looks like it belongs on a newpspaper handed out on the street

Unfortunately that comparison with Greece's public sector was backed up with a comparison to Ireland's construction boom, and as a result the financial crisis screwed the budget and caused the sovereign debt bonds to rocket in price. Back in March, Jose Socrates went to the parliament with a pretty rough austerity budget and the following exchange took place (Translated):

Jose Socrates: "Guys, I know this budget is going to be unpopular, but we need to pass it or we're going to be forced to take an EU bailout to make the rent, and their money comes with a hell of a lot of strings attached. Plus, if it doesn't pass, I'm basically not going to be able to do my job."

Passos Coelho: "Sorry old fruit, but we reckon we'd have you on toast in a general election, so put up them dukes and get ready for a vote of No Confidence".


So step forward the PSD, main opposition and government in waiting, right?

The Social Democratic party, whose logo looks like a removal company from 1990

Well, maybe. Here's a smoothed chart of opinion polls:

Just before the election was called, there was a widespread perception that the Socialists had fallen asleep at the wheel and the PSD should be next to have a go. Since the actual campaign started, they seem to have been bleeding out.

One reason might be that the vote of No Confidence was seen as a bit mercenary; the PSD have a long history of preferring smaller government and voting for austere budgets. The political spectrum in Portugal is similar to ours here in the UK, but the divisions are different. Probably the best description of the PSD is that they are like our Coalition government: a big tent including Big Society conservatives and free-market Liberals. The difference is that while our Right-leaning Lib Dems said that they might not be getting everything they want, but the middle of a debt crisis was no time to monkey around with minority governments and early elections. The PSD, in the eyes of their critics, said that they might well be getting everything they want but there were political gains to be had, so the unsteady nerves of the market could go hang while they cashed in.

Another explanation is that steadily-rising Blue line. Attentive readers might be thinking that if the PSD are the Coalition, then there's room on the right flank: people who refer to themselves as Tories, the Carlton Club and Cornerstone Group. In Portugal, that's the People's Party.

The People's Party, whose logo looks like a symbolic instruction on a health and safety panel of a box of industrial cleaning powder.

The PP's traditional stomping ground is rolling back the abortion-and-gay-marriage achievements of the Socialists, but they're also the most anti-Europe party available. That's probably helping them at a time when Frankfurt is telling Portugal it needs to either cut down on pensions and libraries or else raise taxes.

Since Portugal has proportional representation, Parliament will probably end up looking a lot like the polls. If it stays as it is, the question will be: who is better placed to pull together a coalition or govern as a minority?

Passos Coelho - Image from the Lagos branch of the PSD

Pedro Passos Coelho is probably the favourite to be Prime Minister; if he can win back some of the support that's slipped away since March, or get the People's Party onside, he'll be there.

Jose Socrates- image by Francisco Leong/ AFP

On the other hand, don't count out the Prime Minister; he seems to have gotten some balance-the-budget cred for trying to do the hard but right thing when it came to it, but hasn't completely lost the protect-public-services ethos of a left-wing party. He's led a minority government before, and has a lot of credibility for his achievements, economic meltdown notwithstanding.

It look to me like it'll be a nailbiter.

Portugal

Image from Wikimedia

Countries often have a vignette that encapsulates their understanding of their own history. For Americans, it's fording your prairie schooner over the Big Blue River. For the British, it's Phileas Fogg, certain in his ability to circumnavigate the globe with nothing more than a pocketful of Pound Sterling, a handlebar moustache and a firm attitude [pdf]. For the Spanish, it's Pizarro going buck wild in South America.

The equivalent symbol of the Portuguese golden age is Vasco Da Gama, pitching up on the shores of Malabar with a trunk full of merchandise and a prepared spiel about exciting business opportunities.

Image from wikipedia

At this time Portugal was really good at seafaring: I mean, super-good. In fact:

Portugal fact: That gold symbol on the flag is an armillary sphere.

I'll admit that I have a fairly shaky grasp of Portuguese history after the time that the rest of Europe cottoned on to the colonialism game. For example, I didn't know that Portugal had a fascist dictatorship, and I certainly didn't know it lasted until the nineteen-god-damned-seventies. To put that another way, when my dad started school, there were Western European countries that were literal, actual, secret-police, paramilitary gangs, Mussolini-but-not-as-historical fascist dictatorships.

The Carnation Revolution seems to be a pretty heartening precedent for the Arab Spring, since Portugal is now very democractic, very free, and overall a pretty good place to live (and yes, I will keep linking to that site until you all visit it).

It also has my favourite-named World leader: José Sócrates.

Image by Jose Sena Goulao

Socrates is very much on the bubble for keeping his job. I'm going back to my ancestral homelands for the bank holiday, so we'll take a look at the people trying to knock him off next week, before the actual election on Sunday.